January 26, 2000
LANSING - Coming off a strong holiday shopping season and solid overall year, 81 percent of Michigan retailers expect the 1st Quarter of 2000 to be as good or better than last year's start.
The Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found that 48 percent of retailers expect better year-to-year sales for the first three months of 2000, and 33 percent expect sales to be unchanged.
"We've entered a record ninth year of economic expansion with no major dark clouds on the horizon. It looks like another year of opportunity for our state's retailers, who are naturally optimistic that sales will continue at a healthy pace," said Larry Meyer, MRA's CEO and a former director of the Michigan Department of Commerce.
The Index found that retailers posted an average 1999 sales gain of 5.4 percent. Sales increases for the holiday season averaged 5.9 percent. Although retailers had entered the season projecting an 11 percent increase, their final figures were in line with national figures showing increases in the six percent range.
"The holiday shopping season was strong from start to finish, with no letup. And while it appears that we didn't break any records, retailers did ring up substantial gains," said Meyer.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA's more than 5,000 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
December 1999 results
December Activity
(numbers in parentheses indicate November results)
|
|
%Increased
|
%Decreased
|
%No Change
|
Responses
|
| Sales |
56(62)
|
29(23)
|
15(15)
|
207(229)
|
| Inventory |
33(45)
|
35(23)
|
32(32)
|
205(226)
|
| Prices |
18(19)
|
8(6)
|
74(75)
|
203(225)
|
| Promotions |
31(35)
|
8(4)
|
61(61)
|
205(227)
|
| Hiring |
12(12)
|
6(4)
|
82(84)
|
206(227)
|
Expectations for Next 3 Months
(numbers in parentheses indicate November results)
|
|
%Increased
|
%Decreased
|
%No Change
|
Responses
|
| Sales |
48(57)
|
19(14)
|
33(29)
|
200(225)
|
| Inventory |
31(23)
|
27(38)
|
42(39)
|
202(224)
|
| Prices |
27(20)
|
8(8)
|
65(72)
|
200(224)
|
| Promotions |
30(26)
|
9(12)
|
61(62)
|
201(225)
|
| Hiring |
12(12)
|
5(7)
|
83(81)
|
200(225)
|
December Sales Activity & Expectations for Next Three
Months, by Region
(numbers in parentheses indicate expectations for next three months)
|
|
%Increased
|
%Decreased
|
%No Change
|
|
North
|
51(41)
|
24(20)
|
25(39)
|
|
West
|
56(45)
|
28(7)
|
16(48)
|
|
Central
|
54(56)
|
26(15)
|
20(29)
|
|
East
|
55(45)
|
40(33)
|
5(22)
|
|
Southeast
|
57(50)
|
31(21)
|
12(29)
|
Question of the Month
What was your actual sales growth during the past Christmas season?
Average
5.9%
What was your actual sales growth during 1999?
Average
5.4%