February 23, 2000
LANSING - Michigan's retail industry got off to a slow start in 2000, but retailers are looking for a quick rebound in the months ahead.
Forty-three percent of the state's retailers increased sales in January from the same month a year ago, the lowest percentage since January 1997, according to the Michigan Retail Index. Another 19 percent reported no change and 38 percent reported sales declines.
The Index also found that 85 percent of retailers expect sales for the next three months to equal or surpass last year's numbers. That's up from 81 percent in December.
The Index is a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which operates a branch in Detroit.
"Given the industry's strong overall performance during the holiday season and throughout 1999, some falloff could be expected," said Larry Meyer, MRA's CEO and a former director of the Michigan Department of Commerce.
"But the economy remains strong, consumers remain confident and retailers' optimism is solid. Retailers are looking forward, no doubt, to the state's autoworkers receiving record profit-sharing checks in March."
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retailers Association/Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Michigan Retail Index
January 2000 results
January Activity
(numbers in parentheses indicate December results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 43(56) | 38(29) | 19(15) | 207(207) |
| Inventory | 25(33) | 36(35) | 39(32) | 203(205) |
| Prices | 20(18) | 8( 8) | 72(74) | 203(203) |
| Promotions | 21(31) | 6( 8) | 73(61) | 203(205) |
| Hiring | 12(12) | 5( 6) | 8 (82) | 204(206) |
Expectations for Next 3 Months
(numbers in parentheses indicate December results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 60(48) | 15(19) | 25(33) | 206(200) |
| Inventory | 41(31) | 18(27) | 41(42) | 204(202) |
| Prices | 18(27) | 7( 8) | 75(65) | 204(200) |
| Promotions | 33(30)) | 4( 9) | 63(61) | 202(201) |
| Hiring | 14(12) | 3( 5) | 83(83) | 201(200) |
January Sales Activity & Expectations for Next Three
Months, by Region
(numbers in parentheses indicate expectations for next three months)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change |
| North | 40(51) | 27(11) | 33(38) |
| West | 31(47) | 47(19) | 22(34)) |
| Central | 40(77) | 45(10) | 15(13) |
| East | 67(67) | 33(11) | 0(22) |
| Southeast | 44(62) | 40(18) | 16(20) |