August 23, 2000
LANSING Ð Cool summer weather continued to chill Michigan retail sales in July. It also put a damper on retailers' expectations for the next three months.
Forty-five percent of Michigan retailers reported sales increases in July over the same month a year ago, while 40 percent reported decreases, according to the Michigan Retail Index. That's the worst July on record since the Index was established in 1994 by the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Sales performance has been below normal throughout the spring and summer. Although June showed some rebound, April's and May's figures also were the worst on record for those months.
Two-thirds of Michigan retailers expect to increase year-to-year sales during the August-October period. However, the level of optimism is usually higher at this time of year.
"Most retailers are happy this summer is coming to a close," said Larry Meyer, CEO of MRA and a former director of the Michigan Department of Commerce. "Cool weather, higher interest rates and higher gas prices have taken a toll."
"But continued cool weather can help push up retail sales for the back-to-school and fall seasons,"Meyer added. "An early fall could be retailers' friend."
Furniture and appliance retailers led the industry in July, with 65 percent reporting sales gains. Computer and electronics retailers trailed the industry, with 20 percent reporting increased sales. Apparel retailers fell in the middle of the pack, at 45 percent.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA's more than 5,500 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
July 2000 results
July Activity
(numbers in parentheses indicate June results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 45 (51) | 40 (37) | 15 (12) | 319 (345) |
| Inventory | 39 (47) | 24 (22) | 37 (31) | 311 (343) |
| Prices | 26 (26) | 4 ( 6) | 70 (68) | 311 (341) |
| Promotions | 29 (27) | 4 ( 6) | 67 (67) | 312 (339) |
| Hiring | 15 (16) | 4 ( 6) | 81 (78) | 311 (339) |
Expectations for Next 3 Months
(numbers in parentheses indicate June results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 66 (66) | 15 (15) | 19 (19) | 317 (344) |
| Inventory | 44 (39) | 22 (24) | 34 (37) | 308 (341) |
| Prices | 24 (22) | 5 ( 5) | 71 (73) | 311 (340) |
| Promotions | 39 (39) | 4 ( 2) | 57 (59) | 311 (340) |
| Hiring | 15 (13) | 5 ( 5) | 80 (82) | 309 (342) |
July Sales Activity & Expectations for Next Three Months,
by Region
(numbers in parentheses indicate expectations for next three months)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change |
| North | 52 (67) | 35 (13) | 13 (20) |
| West | 42 (64) | 43 (15) | 15 (21) |
| Central | 45 (66) | 27 (13) | 28 (21) |
| East | 52 (64) | 41 (18) | 7 (18) |
| Southeast | 38 (65) | 46 (16) | 16 (19) |