October 25, 2000
LANSING Ð Michigan retailers are looking at the upcoming holiday season with cautious optimism.
While most retailers are optimistic about sales growth, both the number of retailers projecting sales increases Ð 62 percent Ð and their expected sales growth Ð 9 percent Ð are the lowest since 1994, when the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago began tracking holiday sales expectations through the Michigan Retail Index.
During the previous six holiday seasons, the percentage of retailers projecting increases has ranged from 74 to 78 percent and their projected sales growth from 10 to 13 percent.
"Somewhat lower holiday expectations are no real surprise, given the fact that retailers have experienced slower sales growth all year," said Larry Meyer, CEO of MRA and a former director of the Michigan Department of Commerce.
"Repeated interest rate boosts, higher gas prices and unseasonal weather have all taken a toll."
The Index for September found that the retail industry's overall performance declined from August. Forty-seven percent of retailers posted sales gains over the same month a year ago, down from 49 percent in August. In five of the past six months, less than half of the industry reported increased year-to-year sales.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA's more than 5,500 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
September 2000 results
September Activity
(numbers in parentheses indicate August results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 47 (49) | 42 (37) | 11 (14) | 275 (308) |
| Inventory | 49 (48) | 22 (23) | 29 (29) | 273 (301) |
| Prices | 17 (21) | 5 ( 8) | 78 (71) | 274 (302) |
| Promotions | 24 (24) | 5 ( 5) | 71 (71) | 273 (302) |
| Hiring | 18 (18) | 5 ( 6) | 77 (76) | 274 (302) |
Expectations for Next 3 Months
(numbers in parentheses indicate August results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 62 (66) | 18 (16) | 20 (18) | 273 (306) |
| Inventory | 39 (48) | 30 (22) | 31 (30) | 273 (303) |
| Prices | 19 (20) | 5 ( 8) | 76 (72) | 273 (301) |
| Promotions | 42 (48) | 4 ( 5) | 54 (47) | 273 (300) |
| Hiring | 17 (19) | 6 ( 6) | 77 (75) | 273 (302) |
September Sales Activity & Expectations for Next Three
Months, by Region
(numbers in parentheses indicate expectations for next three months)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change |
| North | 48 (53) | 37 (28) | 15 (19) |
| West | 38 (56) | 44 (26) | 18 (18) |
| Central | 56 (76) | 29 ( 2) | 15 (22) |
| East | 44 (67) | 51 (18) | 5 (15) |
| Southeast | 51 (61) | 45 (12) | 4 (27) |
Question of the Month
What is your expected sales growth during the Christmas season?
Average 9.2%