January 24, 2001
LANSING - Coming off one of the worst holiday seasons in years, relatively few Michigan retailers see opportunity for increased sales during the first quarter of 2001.
Only 30 percent of retailers project increased sales for the January-March period, while 44 percent expect sales to decline from the same period a year ago, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Those projections follow a December in which only 25 percent of the state's retail industry increased sales over the robust December 1999, according to the Index. Nearly two-thirds - 63 percent - saw sales decline from a year ago.
"The survey numbers confirm what many retailers were telling us during the season, that it was a real struggle out there," said Larry Meyer, MRA's CEO and a former director of the Michigan Department of Commerce.
"Although some retailers were successful, it was the retail industry's worst overall performance since the Index was established by MRA and the Federal Reserve in 1994. It's no surprise that retailers remain guarded in their projections for growth this year."
The Index, based on a monthly survey of MRA members, also found that despite an industry-wide average sales gain of 0.0 percent for the holiday season, retailers still posted a 5.1 percent average gain for all of 2000.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA's more than 5,500 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
December 2000 results
December Activity
(numbers in parentheses indicate November results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 25 (34) | 63 (54) | 12 (12) | 267 (277) |
| Inventory | 29 (41) | 41 (23) | 30 (36) | 266 (247) |
| Prices | 19 (23) | 8 (9) | 73 (68) | 266 (272) |
| Promotions | 33 (33) | 9 (10) | 58 (57) | 264 (274) |
| Hiring | 7 (6) | 11 (9) | 82 (85) | 266 (275) |
Expectations for Next 3 Months
(numbers in parentheses indicate November results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 30 (39) | 44 (37) | 26 (24) | 265 (273) |
| Inventory | 15 (19) | 44 (47) | 41 (34) | 267 (273) |
| Prices | 25 (24) | 9 (9) | 66 (67) | 265 (271) |
| Promotions | 29 (33) | 11 (10) | 60 (57) | 265 (270) |
| Hiring | 10 (9) | 13 (10) | 77 (81) | 265 (270) |
December Sales Activity & Expectations for Next Three
Months, by Region
(numbers in parentheses indicate expectations for next three months)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change |
| North | 32 (28) | 51 (55) | 17 (17) |
| West | 16 (21) | 67 (43) | 17 (36) |
| Central | 29 (35) | 63 (35) | 8 (30) |
| East | 31 (29) | 63 (51) | 6 (20) |
| Southeast | 19 (35) | 71 (35) | 10 (30) |