August 22, 2001
Slow sales continue to restrain retailers' forecasts
LANSING - More disappointing sales numbers in July are keeping Michigan retailers' forecasts in check for the back-to-school and early fall seasons.
The number of retailers who increased sales from the same
month a year ago dropped from 37 percent in June to 35 percent in July,
according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan
Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. In
both June and July, 50 percent saw their year-to-year sales decline.
The number of retailers expecting better sales for the
next three months (August-October) also dropped, to 55 percent in July
from 56 percent in June. Another 20 percent project sales declines, up
from 18 percent.
"We're not seeing the uptick in summer sales we expected
back in the spring when the numbers started to move slowly in the right
direction," said Larry Meyer, MRA's CEO and a former director of
the Michigan Department of Commerce.
"Retailers' optimism is following suit. However,
a strong back-to-school season, fueled by the federal income tax checks,
could help get things moving forward again," Meyer said.
The Index found that only in the central region of Michigan
did more retailers ring up year-to-year sales increases (49 percent) than
recorded decreases (33 percent) during July. The region extends from Jackson
up through Lansing and into Mount Pleasant.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice
of retailing in Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association
of general merchandise retailers. MRA's more than 5,500 retail business
members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
July 2001 results
July Activity
(numbers in parentheses indicate June results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 35 (37) | 50 (50) | 15 (13) | 220 (242) |
| Inventory | 27 (30) | 33 (34) | 40 (36) | 218 (239) |
| Prices | 21 (22) | 7 (3) | 72 (75) | 217 (236) |
| Promotions | 27 (21) | 5 (7) | 68 (72) | 218 (236) |
| Hiring | 11 (13) | 7 (6) | 82 (81) | 215 (238) |
Expectations for Next 3
Months
(numbers in parentheses indicate June results)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change | Responses |
| Sales | 55 (56) | 20 (18) | 25 (26) | 216 (239) |
| Inventory | 37 (30) | 27 (28) | 36 (42) | 214 (237) |
| Prices | 19 (20) | 7 (6) | 74 (74) | 214 (235) |
| Promotions | 34 (35) | 6 (2) | 60 (63) | 214 (235) |
| Hiring | 11 (10) | 7 (5) | 82 (85) | 213 (235) |
July Sales Activity &
Expectations for Next Three Months, by Region
(numbers in parentheses indicate expectations for next three months)
|
|
%Increased | %Decreased | %No Change |
| North | 31 (42) | 54 (30) | 15 (28) |
| West | 29 (45) | 49 (17) | 22 (38) |
| Central | 49 (72) | 33 (9) | 18 (19) |
| East | 29 (47) | 61 (30) | 10 (23) |
| Southeast | 38 (69) | 48 (14) | 14 (17) |
