February 27, 2002
'New and Improved' Michigan Retail Index shows rebounding sales, outlook
LANSING — Michigan retailers are the most optimistic
they have been in 17 months, following their best sales performance in
nearly two years, according to the Michigan Retail Index.
The Index of retailers’ sales expectations for the
next three months climbed to 70.3, the highest level of optimism since
August 2000. It stood at 69.6 in December and 63.6 in November.
Retailers’ rising expectations follow January’s
sales performance Index of 56.1, the highest level since March 2000. It
stood at 49.8 in December and 49.2 in November.
The Michigan Retail Index is a joint project of the Michigan
Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and
is based on a monthly survey of MRA members. For the first time in the
survey’s eight-year history, the results have been seasonally adjusted
to provide a better comparison of month-to-month retail data.
"January’s numbers show a strong rebound from
the sluggish performance of the past year and have raised retailers’
expectations for continued year-to-year growth in the next three months,"
said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO.
"We’re also pleased to announce that like many
of the products our members sell, the Michigan Retail Index has become
‘new and improved’ by using seasonally adjusted numbers. This
enables us to eliminate seasonal fluctuations and more accurately gauge
how a month’s retail performance and expectations compare to those
of other months."
The data have been seasonally adjusted by applying a widely
used U.S. Census Bureau procedure ("X-11"), according to William
Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago. A more in-depth explanation of the seasonal adjustments
and a study of how well the Michigan Retail Index tracks economic data
will be available in a Chicago Fed Letter to be published in March.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice
of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association
of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s more than 5,500 retail business
members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
