March 27, 2002

Retailers' outlook continues rising

LANSING - Michigan retailers’ optimism rose for the fifth consecutive month, to the highest level in nearly two years, despite a dip in sales activity during February, according to the Michigan Retail Index.

Sixty-nine percent of retailers surveyed in February said they expect sales for the March-May period to increase, compared to the same time last year. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 74.7, the highest since 76.7 in May 2000. In January the index stood at 70.3.

Forty-one percent of retailers said they increased sales in February, compared to a year ago, while 42 percent said sales declined and 17 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 51.9, down from 56.1 in January, but still the second best since September 2000.

The Michigan Retail Index is a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and is based on a monthly survey of MRA members. Results of the nearly eight years of surveys are now seasonally adjusted to provide a better comparison of month-to-month retail data.

"Retailers’ optimism continues on the upswing as sales gradually improve," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "February’s sales dip is simply a blip in the otherwise positive trend of recent months."

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s more than 5,500 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.