For Immediate Release

April 24, 2002

Retailers forecast improved 2nd Quarter sales

LANSING - Three of every four Michigan retailers project increased 2nd Quarter sales, despite a disappointing Easter holiday that contributed to a falloff in March.

According to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 72 percent of retailers expect sales for April-June to increase over the same period last year. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 75.0, the highest since 76.7 in May 2000 and the sixth consecutive month of rising expectations for the retail industry.

Forty-one percent of retailers said they increased sales in March, compared to a year ago, while 47 percent said sales declined and 12 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 46.0, down from 51.9 in February.

"Retailers’ outlooks continue rising even though it remains tough for many stores to generate momentum from one or two months’ gains," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "The Easter holiday was below expectations and pushed down March sales—a sign that consumers remain cautious even as overall conditions improve."

The Michigan Retail Index is based on a monthly survey of MRA members. Results of the nearly eight years of surveys are now seasonally adjusted to provide a better comparison of month-to-month retail data.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s more than 5,500 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.