For Immediate Release
July 24, 2002

Michigan retailers expect 3rd Quarter improvement

Michigan retailers expect better 3rd Quarter sales despite a sluggish spring.

Sixty-three percent project July-September sales, which include back-to-school shopping, will increase over the same period last year, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

When combined with the 22 percent who project level sales and the 15 percent who predict a falloff, the results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 70.9. It was the highest level of June optimism in two years, although it was down from 72.1 in May.

Actual sales performance in June also dropped from May, by the largest month-to-month margin since last September’s terrorist attacks disrupted consumer spending.

Thirty-eight percent of Michigan retailers said they increased sales in June over the same month last year, while 46 percent said sales declined and 16 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 44.3, down from 51.3 in May. However, it was up from the 41.3 in June 2001.

Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO, said Michigan’s retail industry continues to demonstrate optimism despite the lack of sales momentum.

"Michigan retailers continue to expect increased consumer spending, especially over last year’s dismal, terrorism-influenced 3rd Quarter. And despite a lackluster spring, overall performance continues to run ahead of last year’s."

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s more than 5,700 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.