For Immediate Release
October 23, 2002

LANSING — Michigan retailers expect their holiday sales will grow just under 4 percent this year, in line with national projections and their lowest forecast since annual tracking began a decade ago.

The Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found that 57 percent of retailers believe their holiday sales will increase over last year, with growth averaging 3.7 percent.

Last year’s holiday gains averaged 3.3 percent, less than the 6 percent that stores had projected heading into the season. But only 49 percent of retailers last year expected to boost sales.

"A bright spot is that more retailers than last year are forecasting holiday increases," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "We continue to see solid retailer optimism, although it’s tempered by the realities of a slow-growing economy."

Meyer also pointed out that at the time of the survey, West Coast ports remained closed and the stock market had not staged its recent rally. Optimism could be higher now than it was a few weeks ago, he said.

The projections also came during a lackluster September, which posted the worst sales numbers since last September. Thirty-three percent of retailers reported increased sales, while 57 percent said sales declined and 10 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 39.0, down from 40.1 in August.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s more than 5,700 retail business members operate more than 12,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.