For Immediate Release
October 22, 2003

LANSING — Michigan retailers are projecting a 5 percent increase in holiday sales this year, in keeping with national projections for an improved shopping season.

The Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found that 67 percent of retailers believe their holiday sales will increase over last year, with growth averaging 4.96 percent.

Last year’s holiday sales decreased 3.2 percent for Michigan retailers, the first decline since the Index was established in 1994. Stores had projected an increase of 4 percent.

"We’ve seen sales growth throughout much of this year, a trend that should continue through the holiday season, " said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "Two of the past three months have posted some of the best overall numbers in nearly two years."

The National Retail Federation is projecting growth of 5.7 percent in holiday sales. Other national projections range from 3.5 to 7 percent.

According to the Index’s monthly survey of MRA members, 42 percent of retailers increased sales in September from the same month a year ago, while 40 percent saw declines and 18 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 53.1, up from 44.3 in August. It was the best September since 2000.

Sixty-seven percent project increased year-to-year sales for October-December, while 14 percent see declines and 19 percent predict flat sales. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 74.3, the best in 19 months and tops for September since 1999.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.