For Immediate Release
November 26, 2003

LANSING — Michigan retailers face Friday’s unofficial start of the holiday shopping season with rising optimism and momentum from recent months of improved sales.

They enter the four-week period after posting some of their best numbers in more than a year and with a forecast for a 5 percent increase in holiday sales over last year, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The industry’s overall sales performance climbed for the third month in a row in October. Forty-one percent of retailers increased sales over the same month a year ago, while 40 percent saw declines and 19 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 53.7, up from 53.1 in September and the third month out of the past four in which the Index stood above 50. That hasn’t happened since the summer of 2000.

Sixty-four percent project increased year-to-year sales for November-January, while 17 percent see declines and 19 percent predict flat sales. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 74.8, up from 74.3 in September and the best since April 2002.

"The holiday season is starting with consumers in a stronger buying mood than last year," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "Sales have been improving since summer, and early reports for November are that shoppers are already getting a good jump on the holidays. Retailers are ready for a solid season."

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151