For Immediate Release
December 23, 2003

LANSING — Michigan retailers look forward to the start of the new year with their highest level of optimism in four years.

The Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found in November that more retailers than at any time since late 1999 expected to increase sales for the next three months.

Fifty-four percent projected increased year-to-year sales for December-February, while 22 percent saw declines and 24 percent predicted flat sales. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 81.4, up from 74.8 in October and the best since 83.4 in December 1999.

The spike in optimism came despite a falloff in sales for November after two months of solid gains.

Thirty-eight percent of retailers increased sales over the same month a year ago, while 47 percent saw declines and 15 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 47.2, down from 53.7 in September.

"Holiday season sales were strong the last weekend of November, but weren’t strong enough to boost the industry’s sales performance for the entire month," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "Retailers’ projections for December and the start of the new year indicate they believe November’s drop is only temporary and growth will resume."

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151