For Immediate Release
January 28, 2004

LANSING — Coming off their best holiday season since 1999, Michigan retailers start the new year also with their highest level of optimism in four years.

The Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found that the most retailers since 1999 expect to increase sales for the 1st Quarter.

Forty-eight percent project better sales for January-March over the same period last year, while 30 percent project as-good sales and 22 percent expect declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 81.1, virtually the same as the 81.4 in November and the best December since 83.4 in 1999.

For December, the Index found that 45 percent of retailers increased sales over last year, while 13 percent reported as-good sales and 42 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 51.3, up from 47.2 in November and the best December since 60.6 in 1999.

"Optimism remains high for a number of reasons, including improved performance the last half of 2003 and a rebounding economy," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO.

He cautioned, however, that although overall holiday sales increased by an estimated 5-6 percent in Michigan—the best in four years—the growth was not uniform. The Index found that the average increase among survey respondents was only 0.3 percent. And for all of 2003, which saw weak performance the first six months, respondents said sales declined by 0.7 percent.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.