For Immediate Release
February 25, 2004

LANSING — Michigan retailers expect to increase sales by more than 5 percent this year, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The Index, based on a monthly survey of MRA members, found that retailers are projecting sales increases averaging 5.4 percent—up significantly from the 0.7-percent year-to-year decline in 2003.

"The retail industry experienced a welcome rebound the last half of 2003, but for many it wasn’t enough to offset the slow start. However, the recent growth has fueled Michigan retailers’ optimism for 2004, and we find Michigan’s projections are in line with national forecasts," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO.

In the short term, 56 percent of Michigan retailers project better sales for February–April over the same period last year, while 26 percent project as-good sales and 18 percent expect declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 75.7, down from 81.1 in December, but the best January outlook since 1999.

For January, the Index found that 39 percent of retailers increased sales over last year, while 17 percent reported as-good sales and 44 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 49.9, down from 51.3 in December.

Furniture/appliance retailers are the most upbeat for the February-to-April period. Eighty-two percent of furniture/appliance retailers expect to increase sales for the period, followed by jewelers at 76 percent.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.