For Immediate Release
July 28, 2004

LANSING — Michigan retailers’ short-term forecasts are holding steady following a bounceback in sales, according to the June Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Fifty-nine percent forecast better sales for July-September over the same period last year, while 29 percent project as-good sales and 12 percent expect declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 69.0, virtually unchanged from 69.2 in May.

June sales performance improved from May’s dismal numbers. The Index found that 44 percent of retailers increased sales in June over the same month last year, while 15 percent reported as-good sales and 41 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 51.7, up from 39.2 in May and the best June since 2000.

"Although this year’s overall retail-industry performance is better than last year’s, we’re seeing greater volatility from month to month," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "Fluctuating gasoline prices, weather and even political uncertainties could all be contributing factors."

Northern Michigan retailers posted the best sales performance, with 51 percent ringing up increases and 31 percent reporting decreases.

Furniture and appliance retailers led the industry, with 60 percent reporting higher sales and 15 percent recording declines. Jewelers trailed, with 21 percent increasing sales and 63 percent dropping below the same month last year.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.