For Immediate Release
October 27, 2004

LANSING — Most Michigan retailers expect an improved holiday season—although more than a third say sales will be no better than last year’s.

Sixty-three percent of retailers believe their holiday sales will increase over last year, while 6 percent predict sales will decline and 31 percent project flat sales, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The average projected change in sales is +7.03 percent.

"Retailers’ forecasts for the holiday season are a mix of optimism and caution," said MRA’s Larry Meyer, chairman and CEO. "Coming off a tough 3rd Quarter, fewer retailers are projecting holiday sales growth, but the average projected increase is healthier."

Nationally, the National Retail Federation is projecting overall sales growth of 4.5 percent. The International Council of Shopping Centers forecasts a 3-4 percent increase.

Last year, overall retail sales in Michigan climbed 5-6 percent during the holiday season, the best performance since 1999. But the Michigan Retail Index recorded the average retailer’s increase at less than 1 percent, meaning spending was far from uniform.

Although Michigan retailers experienced a disappointing July–September, their optimism remains high. The seasonally adjusted outlook index for the next three months climbed to 74.5 from 73.1 in August. It was the best September outlook since 1999.

However, the Index also found in September that 37 percent increased sales, 13 percent reported as-good sales and 49 recorded declines over the same month last year. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 45.0, down from 48.4 in August.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.