For Immediate Release
November 24, 2004

LANSING — Friday’s "official start" of the holiday shopping season finds Michigan retailers with rising expectations for improved sales.

More retailers rang up sales increases during October, and the industry’s level of optimism rose to the highest point all year, according to the monthly Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

"It’s looking more like consumers will be out in force and will leave some of their recent spending restraint at home," said MRA’s Larry Meyer, chairman and CEO. "October’s numbers were the best in several months—and couldn’t have come at a better time."

The October Index found that 42 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 15 percent reported as-good sales and 43 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 52.9, up from 45.0 in September.

Sixty percent of retailers believe their sales will increase for November-January over the same period last year, while 23 percent project as-good sales and 17 percent predict sales will decline. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 88.2, up from 74.5 in September.

On average, Michigan retailers are forecasting a 7-percent increase in their holiday sales this year, the September survey found. Nationally, projections for holiday spending increases range from 3 to 5 percent.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers. MRA’s nearly 6,000 retail business members operate more than 13,000 stores across the state.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.