For Immediate Release
January 26, 2005

LANSING — Coming off a mediocre holiday season, most Michigan retailers project a slow start to the new year.

According to the monthly Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, a little more than a third of retailers expect to increase sales during the 1st Quarter compared to the same period last year.

Their forecasts follow a holiday season in which Michigan retailers’ average sales growth was just under 1 percent, far less than the 7-percent gain they had forecast back in September. For all of 2004, however, their average growth was a stronger 2.5 percent.

"The holiday season showed some life at the end, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the softness of most of the season," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. "Understandably, retailers are cautious in their forecasts for the beginning of the new year. Michigan’s economic problems are still evident."

Nationally, economists have pegged same-store holiday sales gains at 2.5–3 percent.

The December Michigan Retail Index found that 37 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 15 percent reported as-good sales and 48 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 48.3, down from 48.9 in November.

Thirty-seven percent of retailers believe their sales will increase for January–March over the same period last year, while 39 percent project as-good sales and 24 percent predict sales will decline. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 62.0, down substantially from 80.4 in November.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers.