For Immediate Release

October 26, 2005

LANSING — Michigan retailers are projecting holiday sales gains averaging 5 percent, in line with national forecasts for the overall rise in spending during the season.

The monthly Michigan Retail Index survey by the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago shows that 74 percent are predicting holiday sales that are as good or better than last year. The average projected sales change among all retailers is +5.0 percent.

"Given the sluggishness of Michigan’s economy and recent lackluster holiday seasons, a 5-percent gain for the holidays would be welcomed by most retailers," said MRA Chairman and CEO Larry Meyer. "Consumers can look for aggressive pricing and early promotions to kick-start the season."

The National Retail Federation projects total holiday retail sales will climb a "moderate" 5 percent this year across the U.S.

The International Council of Shopping Centers predicts same-store sales gains of up to 3.5 percent.

The Michigan Retail Index survey also found that 32 percent of retailers increased sales in September over the same month last year while 56 percent recorded declines and 12 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 39.6, down from 46.6 in August. It was the 11th consecutive month the Index was below 50, indicating that most of the state’s retailers posted lower year-to-year sales.

In addition, 51 percent believe their sales will increase for October–December, while 26 percent forecast declines and 23 percent project no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 64.5, down only slightly from 64.8 in August.

The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.