For Immediate Release
October 25, 2006
LANSING —Michigan retailers are projecting a nearly 5-percent sales increase this holiday season, in line with national forecasts. The projections come on the heels of improved September sales, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a survey project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
“September was one of the strongest months of the year and provides some sorely needed optimism for the upcoming holiday season,” said MRA Chairman and CEO Larry Meyer. “Sharply falling gasoline prices, cooler weather and late back-to-school shopping all helped push up sales.”
On average, Michigan retailers expect their sales to rise 4.5 percent above last year’s lackluster holiday season (sales down an average 1.9 percent from 2004). Similarly, the National Retail Federation forecasts a 5.0-percent rise in holiday spending across the U.S., while the International Council of Shopping Centers pegs holiday sales growth at 4.8 percent.
The Michigan Retail Index found that 39 percent of retailers increased sales in September over the same month last year, while 44 percent recorded declines and 17 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 50.6, up sharply from 37.3 in August and 38.8 in July. An Index number above 50 generally indicates increased activity for the industry as a whole, and the performance number has been above 50 only three of the past 24 months.
In addition, 50 percent believe their sales will increase for October–December, while 26 percent forecast declines and 24 percent project no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 63.4, up from 57.0 in August and 60.2 in July.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in Michigan and the nation’s largest state trade association of general merchandise retailers.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
