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Retailers forecast improved 2nd Quarter sales Three of every four Michigan retailers project
increased 2nd Quarter sales, despite a disappointing Easter holiday that
contributed to a falloff in March. According to the Michigan Retail Index, a
joint project of MRA and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 72 percent
of retailers expect sales for April-June to increase over the same period
last year. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 75.0,
the highest since 76.7 in May 2000 and the sixth consecutive month of
rising expectations for the retail industry. Forty-one percent of retailers said they
increased sales in March, compared to a year ago, while 47 percent said
sales declined and 12 percent reported no change. The results create a
seasonally adjusted performance index of 46.0, down from 51.9 in February.
“Retailers’ outlooks continue rising
even though it remains tough for many stores to generate momentum from
one or two months’ gains,” said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and
CEO. “The Easter bunny did not put as much bounce in spring sales
this year because of the early holiday and the unseasonably cold weather.” The Michigan Retail Index is based on a monthly
survey of MRA members. Results of the nearly eight years of surveys are
now seasonally adjusted to provide a better comparison of month-to-month
retail data. “We’re encouraged by the fact that
the numbers for 2002 continue to trend above last year’s numbers,”
said Meyer. “But the slower March sales are a sign that consumers
remain cautious, even as overall conditions improve.” Furniture and appliance retailers performed
the best in March, with 52 percent reporting increased year-to-year sales
and 33 percent reporting decreases. Northern Michigan retailers - no doubt looking forward to the start of the summer tourism season - were the most optimistic for the April-June period, with 80 percent expecting sales to increase from last year. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index - including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring - are available at www.retailers.com/news/news.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
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