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Stores project 6 percent sales growth for '03 Michigan retailers expect to increase sales
by nearly 6 percent this year, a marked improvement from virtually no
growth last year. The forecast comes from the Michigan Retail
Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The Index, based on a monthly survey of MRA
members, found that stores’ sales grew by an average of 0.8 percent
in 2002. Looking ahead, retailers project annual increases averaging 5.7
percent in 2003. The optimism follows a slight uptick in January
sales during a continued cold retail climate. Twenty-nine percent of retailers increased
sales during January from the same month a year ago, while 59 percent
experienced declines and 12 percent reported no change. The results create
a seasonally adjusted performance index of 35.6, up from 33.1 in December.
For the February-April period, 44 percent
expect to increase sales from the same period last year, while 32 percent
forecast declines and 24 percent project flat sales. The results create
a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 60.5, down from 61.2 in December. “The retail climate continues to be
a difficult one because of economic uncertainty, the threat of war in
Iraq and higher gasoline prices. But most retailers expect sales to recover
and to post solid, but not spectacular, gains by the end of the year,”
said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. In no region of the state did more retailers
report sales increases than decreases during January. The same was true
for specific trade lines. North Michigan came the closest to breaking
even, with 40 percent ringing up increases and 49 percent experiencing
declines. Jewelers led other trade lines, with 35 percent
reporting increases and 52 percent posting declines. General merchandise
retailers, which include department and variety stores, trailed other
trade lines. Eleven percent increased sales and 89 percent experienced
declines. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/news.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
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