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Michigan retailers forecast improved fall sales Michigan retailers continue to project better
fall sales over last year despite losing some momentum during August. Projections for sales growth remain at their
highest point since May 2002, although August sales slipped after a strong
surge in July, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project
of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago. According to the Index, which is based on
a monthly survey of MRA members, 64 percent of retailers forecast increased
sales for September-November over the same period a year ago, while 14
percent expect declines and 22 percent predict flat sales. The results
create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 71.4, the same as in July.
Forty percent of retailers increased sales
in August from the same month a year ago, while 44 percent experienced
declines and 16 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally
adjusted performance index of 44.3, down from 54.3 in July. “Although August sales failed to maintain
the momentum of July’s surge, retailers remain optimistic for fall
sales,” said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. “August’s
performance was in line with national figures showing cautious consumers
did much of their back-to-school shopping at large, discount stores rather
than across the industry. Sales at apparel stores fell off significantly.”
Central Michigan retailers led the state
in August, with 62 percent reporting increased sales. It was the only
region above 50 percent. Southeast Michigan stores were the most optimistic,
with 78 percent forecasting improvement over last year. Jewelry retailers topped other trade lines,
with 56 percent registering higher sales. Apparel retailers trailed the
industry, with only 25 percent ringing up better numbers than a year ago. Furniture and appliance retailers were the
most optimistic, with 85 percent projecting gains. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/news.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
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