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Sales rebound keeps retailers' forecasts steady Michigan retailers’ short-term forecasts
are holding steady following a bounceback in sales, according to the June
Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association
(MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Fifty-nine percent forecast better sales
for July–September over the same period last year, while 29 percent
project as-good sales and 12 percent expect declines. The results create
a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 69.0, virtually unchanged from
69.2 in May. June sales performance improved from May’s
dismal numbers. The Index found that 44 percent of retailers increased
sales in June over the same month last year, while 15 percent reported
as-good sales and 41 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally
adjusted performance index of 51.7, up from 39.2 in May and the best June
since 2000. “Although this year’s overall retail-industry
performance is better than last year’s, we’re seeing greater
volatility from month to month,” said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and
CEO. “Fluctuating gasoline prices, weather and even political uncertainties
could all be contributing factors.” Northern Michigan retailers posted the best
sales performance, with 51 percent ringing up increases and 31 percent
reporting decreases. Furniture and appliance retailers led the
industry, with 60 percent reporting higher sales and 15 percent recording
declines. Jewelers trailed, with 21 percent increasing sales and 63 percent
dropping below the same month last year. Sales tax collections totaled $625 million
in June, up 4.4 percent. A 16.6-percent decline in sales tax collections
from motor vehicle transactions was more than offset by a strong 8.6-percent
increase in sales tax collections from all other taxable retail sales. Sales tax revenue from a brief boost in tobacco sales at the end of June—before the tobacco tax increase on July 1—will be reflected in July’s tax collection figures. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
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