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Michigan retailers project strong growth in ‘04Michigan retailers expect to increase sales by more than 5 percent this year, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The Index, based on a monthly survey of MRA members, found that retailers are projecting sales increases averaging 5.4 percent—up significantly from the 0.7-percent year-to-year decline in 2003. “The retail industry experienced a welcome
rebound the last half of 2003, but for many it wasn’t enough to offset
the slow start. In the short term, 56 percent of Michigan retailers project better sales for February–April over the same period last year, while 26 percent project as-good sales and 18 percent expect declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 75.7, down from 81.1 in December, but the best January outlook since 1999. For January, the Index found that 39 percent of retailers increased sales over last year, while 17 percent reported as-good sales and 44 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 49.9, down from 51.3 in December. Furniture/appliance retailers are the most upbeat for the February-to-April period. Eighty-two percent of furniture/appliance retailers expect to increase sales for the period, followed by jewelers at 76 percent. January sales tax revenues fell a surprising 9.4% from last year to $492 million. As with last month’s tax revenue figures, however, the numbers reflect a greater decline in the motor vehicles sector than in other retail sectors. In January, sales tax collections derived from motor vehicle transactions were down 17.8%, while the collections from all other taxable retail sales were down 7.9%. Complete results of this month’s
Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices,
promotions and hiring
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