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Michigan retailers expect better holiday sales Most Michigan retailers expect an improved
holiday season—although more than a third say sales will be no better
than last year’s. Sixty-three percent of retailers believe
their holiday sales will increase over last year, while 6 percent predict
sales will decline and 31 percent project flat sales, according to the
Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association
(MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The average projected change
in sales is +7.03 percent. “Retailers’ forecasts for the holiday season are a mix of optimism and caution,” said MRA’s Larry Meyer, chairman and CEO. “Coming off a tough 3rd Quarter, fewer
retailers are projecting holiday sales growth, but the average projected
increase is healthier.” Nationally, the National Retail Federation
is projecting overall sales growth of 4.5 percent. The International Council
of Shopping Centers forecasts a 3-4 percent increase. Last year, overall retail sales in Michigan
climbed 5-6 percent during the holiday season, the best performance since
1999. But the Michigan Retail Index recorded the average retailer’s
increase at less than 1 percent, meaning spending was far from uniform.
Although Michigan retailers experienced a
disappointing July–September, their optimism remains high. The seasonally
adjusted outlook index for the next three months climbed to 74.5 from
73.1 in August. It was the best September outlook since 1999. However, the Index also found in September
that 37 percent increased sales, 13 percent reported as-good sales and
49 recorded declines over the same month last year. The results create
a seasonally adjusted performance index of 45.0, down from 48.4 in August.
Sales tax collections totaled $553 million
in September, which was down 4.9 percent from last year. Complete results of this month’s
Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices,
promotions and hiring Return to November/December Michigan Retailer Page one • MRA home |
