 |
Retailers' sales slide while forecasts inch upHow to describe Michigan’s retail industry? Try this: more are upbeat about the future, more are being beaten up in the present. For the second month in a row, more Michigan retailers expect better sales in the short term while seeing actual sales decline, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The February Index found that 62 percent of retailers believe their sales will increase for March–May over the same period last year, while 27 percent project as-good sales and 11 percent predict sales will decline. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 70.2, up from 69.1 in January. At the same time, only 35 percent of retailers increased sales over February ’04, while 13 percent reported as-good sales and 52 percent recorded declines. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 40.8, down from 44.4 in January. February marked the fourth consecutive month the industry’s sales-performance index has fallen, and the eighth time in the past 10 months the index has been below the 50.0 mark. An index reading above 50 indicates overall positive sales activity for the industry. “Most Michigan retailers continue to struggle as our state’s economy continues to lag behind those of other states and gasoline prices and interest rates rise,” said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. “Despite those conditions, retailers’ level of optimism remains relatively healthy. It has been a long winter, and retailers are looking forward to a good spring.” Overall sales tax revenue, however, was up. Collections totaled $474 million in February, up 10.7 percent from last year. This was the second consecutive month that sales tax collections topped the year-ago level by more than 10 percent. Excluding motor vehicle sales, which continue to decline, sales tax collections from other taxable retail sales were up 14.0 percent in February. So far in FY 2004-05, sales tax collections are up 8.6 percent. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
|
