Seasonal shifts

Back-to-school 2005: maybe longer, not better

According to articles in Women’s Wear Daily and The New York Times, many major retailers are rolling out back-to-school merchandise—and the accompanying marketing and promotions—earlier this year, some as early as the last week of June.

Old Navy launched its b-t-s merchandise on July 17 this year, roughly two weeks earlier than last year, and Abercrombie & Fitch displayed a preview—much bigger than last year’s—the second week of June.

J.C. Penney is the earliest of the department stores to bring its back-to-
school apparel out, say analysts, and because that store’s apparel sales have been good, other department stores are following Penney’s lead.

Why the strategy of an ever-earlier, ever-longer back-to-school season? According to Women’s Wear Daily, “early summer sell-through can give retailers a good indication of the merchandise mix and colors that will sell well during late summer and early fall, when the b-t-s season really kicks in.”

There’s also the basic desire to beat the competition to the punch with earlier promotions. And publicly traded corporations are driven to get their 3rd Quarter profits as high as possible.

An extended season, however, does not necessarily translate into greater overall sales, and b-t-s 2005 does not look to be a promising season at this point.

Nationally, sales are expected to slide 8.2 percent, mostly due to smaller demand for computers and electronics. In the Midwest, sales could be as much as 30 percent down from 2004, according to a new National Retail Federation survey.

What about independents?

Does an extended season at major retailers affect smaller merchants with similar merchandise? Is it necessary to keep pushing the starting date of the b-t-s season earlier to match competitors?

“It does put some pressure on,” said Bud Tilton, of Tilton & Sons Shoes in Tecumseh. “We don’t see a lot of shoppers asking for back-to-school shoes in July, but knowing that some department stores have their fall lines out makes it seem like we’re behind, when we’re really not.”

Many independents use the advantage of being smaller to be nimbler and to react to what’s selling and what is not, and to adjust space accordingly.

At Hull’s of Frankfort and Manistee, manager Mariah Hull MacGirr said her stores will clear out the summer inventory as much as possible, but won’t discount “wear now” items like swimwear more than 20 percent as long as they’re still selling.

MacGirr doesn’t pay much heed to the seasons of other stores. “Since we’re catering to the tourists who are only here for about two months, we put out our fall and even winter stuff as soon as it comes in—as long as we have room—in June or July.”

Tourist shoppers, said MacGirr, are very interested in back-to-school merchandise while vacationing. They look for items they may not find at their stores back home.

“We had an unusually early delivery in June of some fleece vests, definitely a winter item,” said MacGirr. “We had room, so we put them out and they started selling the first day. Some people who had missed out on their size the previous year were glad to see them available early.”

Nick Alfano, owner of a chain of children’s shoe stores in Saginaw, Flint and metro Detroit, said he, too, puts out the fall merchandise as soon as it comes in, which is earlier every year.

“We got some items in as early as May—unbelievable!” said Alfano. “So we put them out. We own them, why not show them?”

At Laurie’s Children’s Wear in Grand Blanc, which sells dressier children’s clothes, manager Timothy Beers agrees that manufacturers are shipping fall merchandise earlier each year, but he waits until after his mid-July summer clearance sale to put out the fall lines. “Merchandise was arriving in early June this year, when we’re still clearing room for it,” said Beers. “By mid-July it’s mostly out on our racks.”

Gilbert Rose, of Chelsea Men’s Wear in Wyandotte, believes that parents and students just aren’t “stocking up” like they did in the past. “Now young men will buy one pair of pants instead of five, and two shirts instead of six. They often want to wait and see what everyone else is wearing before committing,” explained Rose.

Consumer’s view

Barbara Hierholzer, a mother of two school-age boys in Howell, doesn’t see the point of putting out back-to-school merchandise earlier each year.

“I’m not one of those ‘be the first on my block’ to have my back-to-school shopping done,” said Hierholzer. “In my experience, the things we need will be there in late August and September.”

“My boys are wearing shorts and summer clothes the first few weeks of school. They don’t want to look at heavyweight clothes in July, and neither do I,” she added.

Hierholzer thinks it may actually backfire to put back-to-school merchandise out too early.

“When it’s out so early, you’re sick of it by the time you’re actually shopping for it. You see it in the summer but you’re not ready to buy; then by the time you are ready it doesn’t look new and exciting.”

Sue Cage and her daughter, Karlee, of Northville, started shopping in early July for the housewares that Karlee will need in her dorm at Calvin College in Grand Rapids this fall.

“Bed Bath & Beyond did a great promotion,” said Sue. “At Karlee’s senior party in early June, the store passed out a checklist of what students will need at college, along with a $5 coupon for the store.

“That got us—and probably many other families—out shopping early for sheets, towels, that sort of thing. What a smart promotion!”

For new clothes, however, Karlee says she will wait for the sales, as she has in the past. She enjoys checking out the new fall lines in July, however, and likes the ‘updated preppie’ look in the stores this summer.

The Cages will not buy any electronic gear before Karlee heads off—she will take an upgraded laptop and a cell phone she bought last year.

For the Cages, what to buy when depends on what they perceive to be difficult to find. Sue wanted to buy the extra-long sheets needed for the dorm beds because it’s the sort of hard-to-find item that might sell out. Clothes, on the other hand, will be replenished regularly, so they don’t rush.

A longer season does give shoppers more choices. Whether they want to get a head start on the new season or wait until the last minute, students and their parents have several months to ready themselves for the approaching school year.

Back to School 2005

According to the findings of the National Retail Federation 2005 Back-to-School Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, the Midwest is heading into a relatively weak b-t-s season, after a better-than-average year in 2004.

In 2004, consumers in the Midwest spent more on average than any other region ($571.67), so it is not surprising that they expect to pull back the reins this year. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.0 percent.

There is little change over recent years in when consumers say they plan to begin their b-t-s shopping. If anything, Midwest consumers plan to shop later than in past years.

This article was written by Amy Buttery, Michigan Retailer staff writer.