April's figures show little change for retailers

Michigan retailers’ sales and short-term forecasts changed little in April from March’s lackluster numbers, despite a surge in U.S. retail sales.

While retailers across the nation enjoyed their best monthly sales gains in two years, April’s Michigan Retail Index found only a minor month-to-month increase in both sales and three-month sales projections. The Index is a survey project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

“Not even a late Easter and some warm April weather could push up Michigan retailers’ sales,” said MRA Chairman and CEO Larry Meyer. “Higher unemployment, higher gas prices and Michigan’s struggling economy continued to hurt most retailers.”

The Index found that 39 percent of retailers increased sales in April over the same month last year while 47 percent recorded declines and 14 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 42.4, up from 42.0 in March. An Index number below 50 indicates decreased activity for the industry as a whole.

In addition, 54 percent believe their sales will increase for May–July, while 18 percent forecast declines and 28 percent project no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 64, up slightly from 63.2 in March.

In no region of the state did a majority of retailers report better year-to-year sales. Apparel retailers fared the best, with 48 percent reporting sales gains and 48 percent reporting declines. They were also the most optimistic, with 57 percent forecasting gains and 13 percent projecting decreases.

Sales tax collections totaled $469.8 million in April, representing a decline of 1.7 percent from the year-ago level. This decline offsets the 1.7-percent increase posted in March. So far in FY 2005-06, sales tax collections are unchanged from last year’s level, which is well below the 3-percent growth estimated for FY 2005-06.

Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.

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