Michigan retail sales forecasts rebound in June

Michigan retailers were a little more optimistic about the final weeks of summer, despite a slow start to the season.

Retailers’ outlook for the next three months gained 2.5 points on June’s Michigan Retail Index, a survey project of the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Meanwhile, June’s sales performance dropped 3.3 points on the Index—remaining in negative territory for 19 of the past 21 months.

“In June we saw a reversal of May. As we moved into summer and closer to the back-to-school shopping season, optimism rebounded but sales fell off,” said MRA Chairman and CEO Larry Meyer. “Retailing continues to struggle in Michigan’s tough economy.”

The Index found that 40 percent of retailers increased sales in June over the same month last year while 41 percent recorded declines and 19 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 44.1, down from 47.4 in May. An Index number below 50 generally indicates decreased activity for the industry as a whole.

In addition, 53 percent believe their sales will increase for July–September, while 21 percent forecast declines and 26 percent project no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 64.0, up from 61.5 in May and essentially the same as April and March levels.

West Michigan retailers fared the best during June, with 50 percent reporting sales gains and 31 percent posting declines.

Jewelers led the industry, with 52 percent posting better numbers and 22 percent experiencing declines.

Sales tax collections totaled $587.6 million in June, up a slight 0.6 percent from the year-ago level. Excluding motor vehicle sales, tax collections from all other taxable retail sales increased 3.1 percent to $521.3 million.

On a fiscal year-to-date basis, sales tax collections are up from last year’s pace by a modest 0.6 percent.

Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.

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