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Michigan retailers’ sales forecasts hold steadyThe number of Michigan retailers forecasting better late-spring sales held steady following a small uptick in sales during March, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. “An early Easter and a touch of warm weather helped push up sales in March,” said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO. “While the increase was not dramatic, any positive movement is welcome in this difficult economy. Looking ahead, retailers are holding firm on their forecasts for slightly improved sales during the next three months.” National retail sales, excluding autos, rose 0.8 percent in March, the U.S. Commerce Department reported. The Michigan Retail Index showed that 43 percent of retailers increased sales in March over the same month last year, while 38 percent recorded declines and 15 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 49.0, up from 46.9 in February. In addition, 49 percent believe their sales will increase for April–June, while 20 percent forecast declines and 26 percent project no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 57.1, little changed from 57.7 in February. Sales tax receipts totaled $469.3 million in March, down 10.3 percent from the year-ago level. While sales tax collections were expected to be down in March due to a noneconomic shift in the timing of sales tax collections, the actual decline was about twice as large as had been expected. The Senate Fiscal Agency attributes this weakness in sales tax collections in large part to the weakness in Michigan's labor market and the slowdown in the housing sector. Sales tax collections have fallen below year-ago levels in four of the past five months, in sharp contrast to the increases that have been realized in income tax collections. So far in FY 2006-07, sales tax collections are down 3.9 percent from last year’s level. Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
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