Michigan retailers make most of tough season

Preliminary estimates of holiday retail sales indicate the season was every bit as challenging as predicted.

Overall sales appear to have been essentially flat for the Thanksgiving to Christmas period, based on the same-store, year-to-year credit and debit card transactions processed by Michigan Retailers for member stores.

Retailers had gone into the season projecting, on average, a 2.2 percent increase in sales over last year’s season, according to the Michigan Retail Index survey conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Numbers from the post-holiday survey will be available on January 23. Those numbers will reflect the entire season, not simply the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

MRA President and CEO James P. Hallan said that even if the preliminary estimates hold, retailers can be encouraged that they held their ground in a tough economy.

“Given the challenges out there in terms of a weak housing market, high unemployment and high gas prices, retailers worked hard to make the most of the season,” he said. “And with some economists estimating holiday sales grew by only 2 percent nationally, Michigan retailers posted relatively good numbers.”

Meanwhile, the November Index survey showed that 42 percent of Michigan retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 44 percent recorded declines and 13 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 48.1, down from 52.0 in October.

Thirty-seven percent believe their sales will increase for December–February over the same period last year, while 39 percent say sales will decline and 23 percent expect no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted outlook index of 56.0, down from 65.0 in October.

Sales tax receipts in November totaled $544.0 million, up 4.8 percent from the year-ago level. This fairly strong rate of growth was due in part to the fact that there was an extra post-Thanksgiving shopping day in November compared with last year.

Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.

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