LANSING – Despite improved conditions for the start of holiday shopping, Michigan retailers ended November with lackluster sales, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
The sales index slipped a couple of points to 48.1, while short-term sales forecasts declined by three points to 64.1.
Back in September, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of Michigan retailers were forecasting better holiday sales over last year, and almost a third (28 percent) expected their sales would climb more than 5 percent. Holiday sales figures will be available in late January.
The November monthly survey of MRA members showed 40 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 45 percent recorded declines and 15 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 48.1, down from 50.3 in October. A year ago November the Index stood at 46.7.
The 100-point Index gauges the performance of the state’s overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity.
Looking forward, 43 percent of retailers expect sales during December–February to increase over the same period last year, while 27 percent project a decrease and 30 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 64.1, down from 67.5 in October. A year ago November the Index stood at 58.4.
Note: William Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
