The 100-point index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity, and values below 50 indicate declining trends. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
This seasonally-adjusted index reflects how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Forty-six percent of retailers noted an increase in August sales over July, while 45% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 9% reported no change. Despite several retailers noting decreased Canadian shopper traffic in-store, and many others sharing negative impacts from the Canadian trade war and tariffs, the overall Retail Index holds steady with a positive score in August.
The hiring plans index for August dropped nearly 10 points from July’s score, coming in at 39.6, the lowest score reported in recent years. Historically, August’s hiring index has been positive, with 2025 reporting a score of 52.6, and 2024 reporting 54.3, both indicating an increase in hiring for the month. But this August score remains an anomaly, nearly 15 points lower than two years ago.
The hiring plans 3-month outlook for August came in lower than years past as well, with a score of 49.7, the first declining hiring outlook we’ve seen in 2026, and five points lower than last August.
“Many of our state’s retailers have reported negative impacts from the Canadian trade war, so every opportunity you have to support a local retailer matters,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “As we look into the coming 3 months, entering the peak holiday shopping season, Michigan retailers need Michigander support.”
When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (June through August), 46% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 24% of retailers anticipate their sales to decline, and 30% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 64.1 for the August 2026 3-month outlook, increasing slightly from last month’s 63.5, but still more than 10 points lower than in August 2025.
“Retailers’ optimism and grit always shine through, but we want to see a more promising outlook when we look at the holiday season. Declining outlook scores for inventory, promotions, and hiring plans indicate a potentially challenging season for our retailers in what is often their most prosperous time of year,” said Hallan. “When it comes to holiday shopping, ‘Keep Your Money in Michigan’ at all costs! Your neighborhood’s retailers are depending on you to buy nearby and shop local.”
The inventory 3-month outlook dropped below the 50-point threshold for the first time since June 2025, coming in at 49.2 for August after a record high of 80.1 in May of this year. This turbulence reflects the uncertainty many retailers face with changing tariffs, rising fuel prices, and shifting consumer confidence.
The thirteenth annual Buy Nearby Weekend will be celebrated October 2-4, presented by Michigan Retailers Association. Hundreds of retailers, restaurants, and organizations are partnering with MRA to shine a light on Michigan’s local retail scene and share the importance of buying nearby.
More contest information and a participating member map are available at buynearbymi.com/bnw26.
Michigan Retailers Association’s mascot, the Buy Nearby Guy, will make appearances in Port Huron, Marine City, Elk Rapids, and a few other surprise destinations during the Buy Nearby Weekend celebration. Shoppers are encouraged to follow Buy Nearby MI on Facebook and Instagram for the latest mascot road trip information.