Retailers Predict Similar Sales Through July
Michigan Retailers Association reports that April 2025’s Retail Index landed at 59.4, indicating a positive month in retail sales. This score marks a healthy increase over March’s 44.7 on the 100-point scale, and the first positive month since January 2025.
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, with higher numbers indicating stronger activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
Each month, this seasonally-adjusted Index reflects how retail sales compare to a historical average for the month. Fifty-two percent of retailers noted an increase in April sales over March, while 30% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 18% reported no change.
Historically, April’s Retail Index score has proven volatile. In 2024, April’s sales resulted in a score of 42.5. But in 2023, April’s retail index was much stronger at 60.6, aligned more closely with this year’s figure. Looking back further to April 2022, the Retail Index was 52.4, and in April of 2021, the score was 67.1. This year’s April Retail Index score signifies a strong month of sales following two months of decline, bringing the score back above the 50.0 threshold for the first time since January.
“We’re pleased to see the return of a positive Retail Index score for April,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “After two months of low sales, Michigan’s retailers felt some relief in April. We’re hopeful that May will be a strong month for the industry as we enter the tourism season in our state.”
3-Month Outlook Remains Stable
When asked to predict their sales outlook for May through July, 58% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 21% said they expect their sales to decline, and 21% anticipate no change. Resulting in an Index rating of 59.9, the optimism score rose just slightly over March’s Index score of 59.3.
“Retailers’ concerns about the short-term future have stabilized for now, but we’re not out of the woods yet. While tariffs remain a threat to our industry, the current pause on tariffs has allowed our retailers time to strategize and time for retailers to adjust to a new normal.” Hallan shared. “We continue to support retailers as they navigate the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and we need consumers to do their part, too. Showing your support for local businesses is vital as we head into summer.”
April’s score of 59.9 marks two consecutive months of 3-month outlook scores below 60.0, which has not happened since November and December 2023. In 2024, the 3-month outlook did not fall below 62.3.
Unemployment Rates
Michigan’s April 2025 unemployment rate has preliminarily been reported at 5.5%, the same rate as last month. Last April, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.4%. The national unemployment rate in April remained at 4.2% for the second consecutive month. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 3.9%.
