3-Month Sales Outlook Sees a Record High for 2025

 

Michigan Retailers Association reports that November 2025’s Michigan Retail Index score came in at 59.2, indicating a positive sales month, and an eight-point increase over October’s 51.2, marking the highest monthly index since April 2025.

The 100-point index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

This seasonally-adjusted index indicates how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Fifty-two percent of retailers noted an increase in November sales over October, while 42% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 6% reported no change.

“Michigan retailers are grateful for strong holiday sales to close out the year. Taking advantage of seasonal deals and special offers has shoppers ready to hit the checkout, even if they’re not shopping for holiday gifts,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “A record number of consumers shopped the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and retailers are hopeful these shoppers will continue to visit local retailers through the rest of the holiday season and beyond.”

The November Price Index score came in at 73.5, notably higher than last November’s 55.4, and the highest on record in 2024 and 2025. Despite ongoing efforts to reduce expenses and seeking cost-effective alternatives to shield consumers from price increases, many retailers have had to increase prices on products due to rising costs of inventory and the impacts of tariffs. Retailers continue to offer special deals and discounts to offset price increases.

Members surveyed reported similar foot traffic to last year’s Thanksgiving holiday weekend, with some retailers sharing declines in in-store shoppers. A winter storm dumping significant snow over much of the state during the Thanksgiving shopping weekend left many shoppers at home, avoiding bad road conditions and severe weather, and shopping online instead of in-store at Michigan retail businesses.

3-Month Outlook
When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (December 2025 through February 2026), 52% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 29% said they expect their sales to decline, and 19% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 83.7 for the 3-month outlook, a record high for 2024 and 2025, and a strong indicator for optimism coming into 2026.

“This record-high outlook is a sign that retailers are ready and hopeful for a strong 2026. This score is up more than ten points from last year, and almost twenty points from last month. Healthy holiday season sales shine a beacon of hope for what’s to come next year,” Hallan shared. “The inventory outlook is also up about 15 points from last year. Shelves are stocked, and retailers are ready for consumers to shop in the new year.”

The inventory outlook for the next three months rose again to 69.6, narrowly beating last month’s record again as the new highest score in 2024-25. This now marks five consecutive months of increasing inventory scores, after a drop to 47.6 in June 2025.

National Retail Federation: Super Saturday Sales
The National Retail Federation reports that a record-breaking 158.9 million shoppers are expected to visit stores on Super Saturday, December 20, the final Saturday before Christmas. This annual shopping milestone is projected to surpass last year’s total of 157.2 million shoppers and exceed the previous record set in 2022, when 158.5 million consumers participated.