3-Month Sales Outlook Sees a Historical Record High

Michigan Retailers Association reports that December 2025’s Michigan Retail Index score came in at 53.2, indicating a positive sales month, but a six-point decrease from November’s 59.2, and a five-point decrease compared to December 2024.

The 100-point index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

This seasonally-adjusted index reflects how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Forty-six percent of retailers noted an increase in December sales over November, while 33% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 21% reported no change.

“Holiday shopping helps retailers end the year with strong sales. Consumers and business owners all plan for extra spending through the holiday season, and this year was no exception,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “We’re happy to end a turbulent year with four consistent months of positive sales trends for retailers. We hope to see this continue into 2026.”

December’s price adjustments index score came in at 75.2, another increase from last month’s score. Many retailers continue to adjust prices on products due to rising inventory costs and the impacts of tariffs. For several months, the price adjustment index score has landed above historical averages, with this month showcasing a more than 20-point increase in comparison to December 2024. 

When asked when they expect tariff-related price increases to be complete, over 41% of retailers said they don’t anticipate any further tariff-driven price increases. Thirty-three percent of retailers surveyed said they didn’t know when the increases would be complete, while others expect Q1-Q2 of 2026 to bring an end to these price adjustments.

3-Month Outlook

When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (January through March 2026), 52% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 22% said they expect their sales to decline, and 26% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 90.0 for the 3-month outlook, and a strong indicator for optimism coming into 2026. The 3-month prediction last month came in at 83.7.

“Coming off of a busy holiday season, retailers’ spirits are high and they’re optimistic for a strong year of sales,” Hallan shared. “December set more record-highs: the 3-month promotions outlook for all of 2024 and 2025, and the sales outlook came in as the highest score that we have on historical record. Retailers are ready for 2026!”

The inventory outlook for the next three months dropped slightly to 62.0, still a positive indicator despite falling more than six points from the previous month. The price adjustment outlook increased by eight points, establishing another record high for the year, indicating that consumers are likely to see continuing price adjustments through the first quarter of 2026.