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Retailers feeling whiplashed before holiday shopping season emerges
Michigan Retailers Association reports that the September 2026 Michigan Retail Index score came in at 44.2, down significantly from the previous month’s (August 2026) 54.5. Last year in September, the retail sales index came in at 55.1.
The 100-point index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Higher numbers indicate stronger activity; values above 50.0 generally signal positive sales activity, while values below 50.0 indicate declining trends. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
This seasonally-adjusted index reflects how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Thirty-five percent of retailers noted an increase in September sales over August, while half of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 15% reported no change in sales.
Following three months of positive sales trends, September marks the first indication of decreasing sales since the six-month stretch of declining sales that ended in May. The end of the summer tourism season and a wave of poor weather have left retailers eager for improvement this month.
“High fuel prices combined with September’s wet weather across the state created a challenging month for retail. Michigan has seen a significantly warmer October than last year, and it will be telling to see how retail sales mirror the forecast,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association.
3-Month Outlook
When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (October through December), 50% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 20% of retailers anticipate their sales to decline, and 30% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 74.4 for the 3-month outlook, a large jump from the 3-month prediction last month at 64.1, and the highest 3-month outlook since May 2026.
“As we head into the holiday shopping season, local Michigan retailers are ready to welcome shoppers as they hunt for unique gifts and good deals,” said Hallan. “The uptick in retailers’ optimism is a strong sign for an increase in sales for the remainder of the year as the ten busiest shopping days of the year are right around the corner.”
NRF Releases Holiday Shopping Season Predictions
The National Retail Federation expects 2026 holiday sales to increase 4.2% over 2025 as total spending is estimated to reach $1.013 trillion. According to NRF, 91% of consumers admit plans to celebrate the winter holidays, including Hanukkah, Christmas, and Kwanzaa. The top gift planned to purchase this year is gift cards (47%), followed by clothing and accessories (44%), and books and other media (25%).
Surprisingly, this year just 53% of consumers plan to shop online during the holidays, down from 55% in 2025, and the lowest it’s reached in 10 years. Fifty-six percent of shoppers say the state of the economy will affect their spending this year.
“Even if you are buying online, you can still ‘Keep your Money in Michigan’ and support locally-based eCommerce. Hundreds of Michigan retailers offer online shopping with shipping or in-store pickup. Every purchase makes a difference for local retailers,” said Hallan.
