Retail Index shows sales up year-over-year
Michigan Retailers Association reports that June 2025’s Retail Index came in at 48.7, a decrease from May’s 57.3, but an increase over June 2024’s 43.3.
The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, Index values below 50 generally indicate negative activity. The seasonally-adjusted performance Index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
Each month, this seasonally-adjusted Index reflects how retail sales compare to a historical average for the month. Forty-three percent of retailers noted an increase in June sales over May, while 39% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 18% reported no change.
“While this June’s Retail Index score is up from last year’s numbers, the inconsistency retailers have seen this year continues to be a concern among business owners,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “As a comparison, last year’s Retail Index scores remained in a six-point window for eight months straight. But this year, most months’ scores are fluctuating more than six points.”
3-Month Outlook
When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (July through September), 56% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 23% said they expect their sales to decline, and 21% anticipate no change. That results in an Index rating of 61.3 for June’s 3-month outlook, a slight dip from May’s Index score of 63.6, but an indication of hope for positive sales months ahead.
“Retailers continue holding on to hope for improving sales as we cross the mid-year mark,” Hallan shared. “Now halfway through the year, we’ve seen retailers navigate a volatile market with optimism and determination. Even through the major swings in monthly retail index scores that we’ve seen in 2025, the three-month outlook has remained positive. The spirit of Michigan’s retailers is strong.”
The inventory outlook for the next three months is the lowest it’s been since before the holidays last year, dropping to 47.6 after several months above the fifty-point mark. However, the hiring plans 3-month outlook jumped to 57.1 from last month’s 48.6, indicating that retailers expect to hire more in the coming quarter.
Back-to-School Shopping Starting Early
The National Retail Federation’s annual back-to-school shopping survey at the beginning of July shows that 67% of consumers have started back-to-school shopping already. Last year, 55% of consumers had started shopping for the upcoming school year at this time. Many families are starting their shopping earlier, citing concerns of rising costs due to tariffs.
Total spending on back-to-school supplies is on the rise, expected to reach $88.8 billion for college students, up from $86.6 billion in 2024, and $39.4 billion for K-12, up from $38.8 billion in 2024.
Unemployment Rates
Michigan’s June 2025 unemployment rate has been preliminarily reported at 5.3%. Last June, the state’s unemployment rate came in at 4.8%. The national unemployment rate in June dropped one notch to 4.1% compared to May’s 4.2%. Last year, the national unemployment rate was 4.1%.
