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LANSING, Mich. – Michigan Retailers Association reports that the July 2026 Michigan Retail Index score came in at 57.5, indicating a second month of positive sales after a slow start to the year. Taking a slight dip compared to June’s 58.8, the score is nearly 10-points higher than it was last July, when the Index score came in at 49.8.
The 100-point index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity and values below 50 indicate declining trends. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
This index reflects how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Fifty-six percent of retailers noted an increase in July sales over June, while 31% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 13% reported no change. Despite several retailers sharing impacts to their sales from wildfire smoke moving through Michigan in the month of July, overall retail sales trends remain positive.
Inventory Continues to Climb
Retailers’ shelves were stocked full for July, in preparation for a projected record-breaking back-to-school shopping season and upcoming holiday rush. The inventory index for July rang in at 67.6, hitting another record high for this year - and beyond. Since 2024, the inventory index has not been higher than 65.0, peaking at 60.6 in November 2025.
“Another strong month for Retail! We thank Michigan’s shoppers for supporting local retailers through the summer months, especially when travel and tourism are calling our name,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “Sales, promotions, hiring, and inventory are all on the rise. When you shop at a store in your community, instead of shopping online, you’re helping your neighbors and community thrive.”
MRA’s 2026 Buy Nearby Economic Impact Study, conducted in partnership with Public Sector Consultants, outlined that for every $100 spent locally, instead of online, $24 of new income is generated for Michigan’s workers.
The study also found that a 10% shift of Michigan’s online purchases back to a local storefront would generate 14,000 new jobs.
Additional findings from the study can be found at: retailers.com/retailer-resources/buy-nearby-study-2026
3-Month Outlook Sees 13-Month Low
Dropping more than ten points to a score of 63.5, July’s 3-month outlook, while still positive, is the lowest score seen since June 2025. When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (August through October), 54% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 26% of retailers anticipate their sales to decline, and 20% anticipate no change.
“Between the conflict with Iran, high fuel prices, and new tariff uncertainty, retailers’ optimism remains positive but is weakened. Tourism and back-to-school shopping have helped our retailers have a positive summer season, but Fall remains filled with unknowns,” said Hallan. “We are hopeful for a profitable holiday shopping season for our retailers, and encourage shoppers to “Buy Nearby” first. Check a local store before you buy gifts online this year. You might be surprised by the unique inventory and deals you’ll find.”
The inventory outlook also dropped nearly ten points, coming in at 53.7, the lowest score since June of last year. This record low for 2026 comes just two months after an unprecedented high of 80.1 this May. The instability in the inventory outlook is a reflection of the uncertainty many retailers are facing as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz continue to impact trade routes.
Less Taken in Stores, More Lost to Schemes
Retailers experienced a decline in shoplifting incidents and retail merchandise theft in 2025 compared with 2024, according to the National Retail Federation. There was a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decrease in merchandise theft. But the battle for retailers is far from over.
The National Retail Federation reported the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts, including cargo theft, phone scams, and gift card fraud. The 2026 Impact of Retail Theft and Violence survey displays the concerning shift as criminals move beyond traditional shoplifting to more sophisticated external theft schemes. Michigan Retailers Association has been supportive of legislative efforts at the federal and state level to curb organized retail crime, including the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA), which passed the U.S. House of Representatives 348-60 this May.
Buy Nearby Weekend 2026
Retailers are gearing up for the annual “Buy Nearby Weekend” celebration, recognized the first full weekend in October every year. October 2-4, 2026, retailers, restaurants, and other local community partners will encourage shoppers to kick off the holiday season by choosing to “Buy Nearby” and “Keep Your Money in Michigan.” The weekend’s celebration includes a mascot road trip, free educational and promotional materials for Michigan-based businesses, and the “Shop 3 Challenge Punch Card Contest,” where one lucky shopper will win a $500 gift card.
For more information, visit BuyNearbyMI.com.
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