Lansing, MI - Michigan Retailers Association reports that the May 2026 Michigan Retail Index score came in at 40.4, once again down from the previous month’s (April 2026) 43.7. May 2026 marks the sixth month in a row of declining sales. Last year in May, the retail sales index came in at 63.6.

What is the Retail Index?

The 100-point index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. With higher numbers indicating stronger activity, index values above 50 generally indicate positive sales activity and values below 50 indicate declining trends. The seasonally-adjusted performance index is conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.

This seasonally-adjusted index reflects how current retail sales compare to a historical average for each month. Thirty-seven percent of retailers noted an increase in May sales over April, while 50% of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales decrease, and 13% reported no change.

Price Adjustments Index Reaches a New Annual Low

The price adjustments index for May rang in at 53.7, still indicating slight increases in pricing, but the lowest score seen since 2024. Last year in May, the price adjustment index climbed to 65.9, up more than five points from April 2025 when President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. Since then, the price adjustment index has remained above 61.0, indicating that retailers have had to increase prices consistently for the past twelve months. 
 
“We are hopeful that this decrease in the price adjustment index means both retailers and consumers will start feeling the benefits of prices stabilizing,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the Michigan Retailers Association. “With fuel prices still high, and summer tourism season upon us, retailers are doing everything they can to keep inventory prices low and give consumers a great reason to shop locally.”

The price adjustment 3-month outlook also reached an annual low, declining to 57.4 in May 2026, down seven points from April’s outlook at 64.4.  

3-Month Outlook

When asked about their sales outlook for the next three months (June through August), 71% of retailers predicted their sales would increase, 8% of retailers anticipate their sales to decline, and 21% anticipate no change. That results in an index rating of 79.1 for the 3-month outlook, a huge increase from the 3-month prediction last month at 67.3, and the highest 3-month outlook since January 2026. 

“Retailers are hopeful that the summer season will bring strong tourism spending. After a slow start to sales for the year, we’re hopeful that the second half of the year holds more positive numbers for Michigan’s retail community,” said Hallan. “If you’re out traveling this summer, do your part to support a local retailer wherever you go.”

Record Father’s Day and Graduation Spending Expected

Father’s Day spending is expected to reach a record $27.9 billion this year, surpassing last year’s high of $24 billion, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey. Seventy-seven percent of consumers plan to celebrate the holiday, and average spending is projected to climb to $226.58 per person, up from $199.38 in 2025. 

Likewise, the National Retail Federation announced that spending for high school and college graduates will reach a record high in 2026. Per-person spending is expected to reach nearly $117, with total spending anticipated at $7.2 billion, up from last year’s high of $6.8 billion.